India's Tech Sovereignty: Forrester's 2030 Forecast
30 Jul 2026
Forrester's newly released Global Sovereignty Forecast 2025–2030 offers a mixed picture for India's technology independence: a sharp projected climb in semiconductor capability, but only modest gains in overall tech sovereignty relative to global peers.
The numbers
According to the report, India's semiconductor sovereignty score is projected to rise from 0% in 2025 to 13% by 2030. Meanwhile, India's overall tech sovereignty score is expected to move from 32% to 35% over the same period — a smaller relative gain than the semiconductor jump.
For context, the 14-country average tracked by Forrester sits at 39% in 2025, projected to reach 40% by 2030. That means India starts below the average and, despite improvement, is still projected to trail it in 2030.
The 14 countries assessed include Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Mexico, South Korea, Spain, the UK, and the US.
What Forrester says
Biswajeet Mahapatra, principal analyst at Forrester, framed India's trajectory optimistically: "India is well positioned to strengthen its role in the global technology landscape, supported by its digital innovation agenda, AI ambitions, and deep technology talent pool."
He added a caveat about strategy: "India's success will depend on balancing strategic autonomy with strong global partnerships while continuing to invest in trusted infrastructure and resilient technology ecosystems."
Reading between the numbers
The semiconductor score starting at 0% in 2025 likely reflects India's current dependency on foreign chip production, with no significant domestic fabrication capability captured in the data. The projected rise to 13% by 2030 would suggest emerging — though still limited — domestic capacity building over the next five years.
The report doesn't detail the methodology behind these sovereignty scores, nor does it break out how individual countries besides the 14-country average compare on semiconductor or overall metrics. It's also unclear why India's overall score grows more slowly in relative terms (32% to 35%) than its semiconductor score (0% to 13%) — the report offers no explanation for this divergence, and no specifics on which policies or investments are driving the semiconductor projection.
Why founders should care
This data likely matters most to founders operating in hardware, AI infrastructure, or supply-chain-adjacent sectors:
- The projected semiconductor score increase could signal expanding opportunities in chip design, fabrication support, or related supply chains as India builds domestic capacity through 2030 — though the base remains small.
- The modest overall sovereignty gain suggests founders should probably continue planning around global partnerships and imported infrastructure rather than assuming a rapid shift to fully domestic tech stacks.
- Mahapatra's emphasis on balancing autonomy with global partnerships hints that hybrid strategies — leveraging both domestic incentives and international supply chains — may prove more resilient than betting entirely on localization.
The gaps in the picture
Forrester's report leaves several open questions: how sovereignty scores are calculated, how India stacks up against specific peer countries rather than just the average, and what concrete policy or investment moves are expected to drive the semiconductor score higher. Founders tracking India's tech policy landscape should watch for more granular data as these projections play out over the next five years.